Skilled Worker visas: 82 jobs now under review for the Temporary Shortage List – risks and opportunities for employers

The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), which is the Government’s independent adviser on immigration, has published Stage 1 of its Temporary Shortage List (TSL) review. Here is what the Stage 1 recommendations mean, which occupations are being tested in Stage 2, where the risks are, and what employers should do now.

Who the MAC is and what this Stage 1 report does

The MAC is a statutory, independent body commissioned by the Home Secretary to provide evidence‑based recommendations on UK immigration policy. It does not make the rules, and it is the Home Office that will decide whether to accept its recommendations. 

On 2 July 2025, the Home Secretary asked the MAC to review salary thresholds and to design and populate a new Temporary Shortage List. Stage 1 of the TSL review (published 9 October 2025) has two outputs: 

1. advice on how the TSL should work in practice; and 
2. a shortlist of 82 RQF 3–5 occupations that should proceed to Stage 2 for deeper testing. Stage 2 runs to July 2026 and will apply further tests (shortage, ‘sensible to use migration’, and strong ‘Jobs Plans’ to grow the domestic workforce). 

Interim arrangements (the expanded Immigration Salary List (ISL) and the interim TSL) remain in force for now but are due to expire on 31 December 2026.However, the MAC expects their recommendations to be considered and acted upon before the 31 December 2026 expiry date. 

What Stage 1 recommends (and what it doesn’t)

Stage 1 is a gateway, not a decision on who will end up on the TSL. It narrows the field to 82 ‘potentially crucial’ mid‑skilled occupations and sets the design parameters for a tight, time‑bound route. The MAC is clear that it does not expect all 82 to pass Stage 2. The Home Office will ultimately decide whether to accept MAC’s recommendations.

Three things employers want to know first

1) Which current RQF 6 roles are proposed to move into RQF 3–5 (i.e., into scope for the TSL)?

MAC proposes to treat the following as RQF 3–5 for immigration purposes, even though they are currently treated as RQF 6+ in the system: 

• 3415 Musicians; 
• 3534 Financial accounts managers; 
• 3556 Sales accounts and business development managers. 

If the Home Office rejects this ‘tidy‑up’, these will remain degree‑level roles outside the TSL and two objectively RQF 1–2 roles (5317 Glaziers, and 7214 Market research interviewers) would be added to the Stage 2 list instead.

2) Which RQF 3–5 roles not currently on the interim TSL are now being tested?

Many trades, construction and technician roles appear in the MAC’s 82 role shortlist but are not on today’s interim TSL. In the master table below, the ‘On interim TSL now?’ column shows ‘No’ where a role is not on the current GOV.UK list – those are the potential new routes for sponsorship if they pass Stage 2 and are accepted by the Home Office.

3) Which occupations on today’s interim TSL are not being taken forward (early risk signal)?

Two codes do not proceed: 5232 Vehicle body builders and repairers; 5233 Vehicle paint technicians. They remain on the interim TSL for now but are at risk when the interim lists sunset on 31 December 2026.

The 82 occupations proceeding to Stage 2 

How to read this table: 

• ‘On interim TSL now?’ reflects the GOV.UK list published on 22 July 2025. ‘No’ indicates future sponsorship potential following completion of MAC stage 2 review. 
• ‘MAC reclassification note’ flags where the MAC proposes a move from RQF 6+ to RQF 3–5.

Interim‑TSL occupations not proceeding to Stage 2 (treat as ‘at risk’)

What the future TSL may look like (in practice)

MAC frames the TSL as a narrow, time‑bound route for genuinely mid‑skilled roles in sectors critical to the Industrial Strategy. 

• Occupations would typically be listed for three years, though some may start with up to 18 months if sector ‘Jobs Plans’ need development.
• Visa terms should be 3–5 years.  If ministers decide the TSL is not a route to settlement, renewals would not go beyond five years.
• English should be no lower than B1.
• Occupation‑specific pay floors should be at least as high as on the Skilled Worker route and salary discounts are not recommended.
• Dependants are not permitted for new RQF 3–5 entrants under the current rules.
• The Skilled Worker sponsorship model would apply initially, but government may explore alternatives in highly self‑employed sectors.
• The MAC is divided on whether a Resident Labour Market Test would help; nation‑specific lists are left open in principle but with a high operational bar.

Timeline at a glance

1. 9 October 2025: Stage 1 report published
2. December 2025: MAC salary‑thresholds report due (will set the tone on TSL pay)
3. Now to July 2026: Stage 2 evidence and testing; sector ‘Jobs Plans’ will be decisive
4. 31 December 2026: Interim ISL and interim TSL entries are due to end unless replaced before then

What employers should do now – practical takeaways

Prioritise role‑mapping

Cross‑check your vacancies against the 82 SOC codes and mark three buckets: roles the MAC proposes to reclassify to RQF 3–5; roles not on today’s interim TSL that are now being tested; and roles currently on the interim TSL that are not proceeding. This exercise gives you an immediate risk/opportunity heat‑map.

Feed the ‘Jobs Plan’

Stage 2 will hinge on credible, resourced sector plans to maximise UK recruitment and training and to tackle exploitation risks. The MAC is now expected to launch a ‘Call for Evidence’ including guidance around how external stakeholders can input into the Job Plans. Look out for the Call for Evidence and coordinate with your trade body and government leads now as weak plans will reduce the odds of inclusion.

Re‑cost the route

No salary discounts are proposed, and family‑unfriendly terms (no dependants). Factor this into total cost of hire and design retention measures accordingly.

Build progression pathways

Where possible, plan routes for TSL hires to progress into RQF 6+ roles (and standard Skilled Worker terms). This improves retention and mitigates end‑of‑visa churn.

Plan for both outcomes on reclassification

For codes 3415, 3534 and 3556, prepare for either a shift into TSL or retention as RQF 6+. If the latter, note MAC’s indication that 5317 and 7214 would be added to Stage 2 instead.

How we can help

We can support you in a number of practical ways, tailored to your roles and sector.

• Workforce & SOC mapping (with costs and timelines) – We map your roles to SOC 2020 and flag, role‑by‑role, where sponsorship risk or opportunity sits under the 82‑occupation review. For each role we outline indicative costs (salary floor once set, visa/ISC fees) and key dates so HR and Finance teams can plan accordingly.
• Call for Evidence / Jobs Plan input – We provide targeted advice and drafting support for sector submissions, using evidence you already hold (vacancy and time‑to‑hire data, training capacity, pay bands vs thresholds, DWP activity, worker‑protection measures).
• Recruitment, onboarding and compliance adjustments – We can help align your sponsorship policies and processes to a no‑discount, no‑dependants, time‑limited TSL route, once final settings are confirmed.
• Progression into RQF 6 – Using your SOC map, we can help identify sensible progression routes into RQF 6 roles (where settlement remains available) to support retention and reduce reliance on the TSL.

If you’d like to discuss the MAC review in further detail or discuss what’s relevant to you, please contact our Business Immigration team.

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